Rupee hits three-week low; Indian Rupee outlook

The rupee ended largely steady on Tuesday after dropping to its lowest in three weeks earlier as data showed a contraction in industrial output but continued high consumer inflation raised uncertainty about how aggressively the RBI would cut interest rates this year.

Continued heavy dollar demand from oil firms and other importers also pressured the rupee on Tuesday, which fell for a fifth consecutive session, its longest losing streak in two months.

Still, the local unit saw strong support at 54.00-54.05 levels, helping it to close off the day's lows.

Traders will now await the wholesale priced-based inflation on Thursday for a clearer view on future rate cut prospects. WPI-based inflation likely eased again in January to 7 percent, its lowest level in over three years, according to a Reuters poll.

"Oil firms were there in the market and we saw other importers panic too. NDF was higher and the weak IIP data triggered further weakness," said Vikas Babu Chittiprolu, a senior foreign exchange dealer with state-run Andhra Bank.

"We saw some exporters come in to sell (dollars) in the last hour. I expect 54.30 to be a strong support for the rupee, holding the unit in a 53.40 to 54.30 range for the rest of the week," he added.

Full story @ http://in.reuters.com/article/2013/02/12/india-rupee-iip-data-impact-idINDEE91B0B820130212

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Indian Share Market Tips and Rupee Outlook Today

The rupee opens lower at 53.52/53 vs 53.36/37 last close as local stocks fall tracking Asian indexes.

Month-end oil-related USD demand will be watched, say dealers.

USD/INR may move toward 53.66-75, followed by 54, but eventual risk remains for down move towards 52.18, the 38.2 percent of the 43.85-57.32 (February 27, 2011-June 22, 2012) rally, charts show.

Stock Market Trading Tips Today :

BHEL seems very strong, recommended to sell over next 3 sessions with target of 235

Sell sbin @current level sl 2220 target below 2200 2180 2160 

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Market Outlook and Nifty on Monday

Indian Share Market Review | Market closed today : The BSE Sensex closed at 17,683.73 up 337 points higher on Friday tracking a rally in global shares, led by gains in blue-chip shares such as Reliance Industries(RELI.NS) that gained after CLSA raised its target price.

Banks shares also gained on hopes the Reseerve Bank of India (RBI) may cut rates on September 17 if the government announces reform measures next week.

The BSE index rose 1.95 percent. The 50-share NSE index ended up 1.98 percent.

Indian stocks opened gap-up tracking the global rally and the momentum stayed through the session.

High beta stocks, such as metals and realty, benefitted the most from today's rally. Commodity stocks gained as the liquidity push is expected to drive prices up. Capital goods stocks also saw strong buying interest and outperformed all other sectoral indices on the BSE.

Realty major DLF was the top Nifty gainer, rising 5.6 per cent. Steel maker Tata Steel advanced 5.6 per cent. Private lender ICICI Bank, commercial vehicles manufacturer Tata Motors, cement and infra major Jaiprakash Associates, and India's biggest engineering and construction firm L&T closed with 4-5 per cent gains.

Oil refiner BPCL was the only stock to close lower on the Nifty-50. Shares in oil marketing firms witnessed selling pressure after Petroleum Minister S. Jaipal Reddy said there was no immediate plan to increase fuel prices. The announcement left investors disappointed, who were expecting a price hike as early as today. BPCL declined 0.63 per cent.

The market breadth was strong with 75 per cent stocks rising on the broader BSE 500 index.

Analysts were mixed in their outlook, some expecting markets to go up, while others suggesting profit booking.

"Markets are likely to go up from here on the back of liquidity... There is no improvement in fundamentals, but liquidity can do crazy things," Devang Mehta, vice president (equity sales) Anand Rathi told NDTV Profit.

Source -- NDTC.Profit

Nifty Levels for Monday 10 September :

Pivot : 5432 , 

Support-1 : 5148.5 , Support-2 : 4954.9 , Support-3 : 4671.4

Resistance-1 : 5625.6 , Resistance-2 : 5909.1 , Resistance-3 : 6102.7

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Nifty for Monday : Share Market Trading Strategy

It was a rangebound and volatile week for the Indian share market which traded in no particular direction though the bias. For the last trading day, top Nifty gainers were ICICI Bank, Mahindra & Mahindra and HUL while losers included Jindal Steel & Power, Sesa Goa and Maruti Suzuki. 

Share Market Trend For Next Week -

Indian Rupee is expected to consolidate further and head towards 55.70-56.00 per dollar next week, while bond yields are expected to hold in a range ahead of the factory output and inflation data due later in the week. The data may have a more muted impact given widespread expectations the RBI will keep interest rates on hold on July 31, though it could influence expectations for future decisions.

The 10-year benchmark bond is expected to hold in a 8.15 to 8.25 percent band next week with the focus also on domestic debt supplies. Traders said they do not expect open market operations, due to the sharp easing in banking system liquidity.

We will enter the earnings season next week -- with Infosys and TCS coming out with their earning numbers on Thursday. So, we expect market to behave well next week. 

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